Developing Asia will likely end the year on a brighter note, the Asian Development Bank said on Wednesday, with growth in the region expected to be stronger than previously thought due mainly to a recovery in China’s economy.
The ADB raised its 2023 growth forecast for developing Asia to 4.9% from 4.7% projected in September, but kept its growth outlook for the region at 4.8% next year.
The ADB also revised upwards its growth projection for China to 5.2% from 4.9% previously, but maintained its growth forecast for the world’s second-largest economy at 4.5% next year.
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China’s economy grew at a faster-than-expected clip of 4.9% in the third quarter, while consumption and industrial activity in September also surprised on the upside, supported by a flurry of policy measures that bolstered a tentative recovery.
The ADB said robust domestic demand, stronger remittances, recovering tourism were underpinning economic activity in the region, which consists of 46 economies in the Asia-Pacific and excludes Japan, Australia and New Zealand.
Outlook for the sub-regions was mixed, with East Asia seen growing faster at 4.7% this year versus the ADB’s 4.4% forecast in September, while Southeast Asia was projected to grow at 4.3%, slower than the previous forecast of 4.6%.
South Asia was likewise expected to post stronger growth of 5.7% this year from 5.4% previously, with India’s economy seen expanding at a faster clip of 6.7% this year.
Inflation in developing Asia was forecast to ease to 3.5% this year, down slightly from ADB’s earlier expectation, before rising slightly to 3.6% in 2024.
| GDP GROWTH | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2023 | 2023 | 2024 | 2024 | 2024 |
| JULY | SEPT | DEC | JULY | SEPT | DEC | |||
| Caucasus and Central Asia | 5.8 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 4.6 |
| East Asia | 7.9 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 |
| China | 8.4 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| South Asia | 8.4 | 6.7 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| India | 9.1 | 7.2 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.7 |
| Southeast Asia | 3.5 | 5.6 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.7 |
| Indonesia | 3.7 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| Malaysia | 3.1 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.6 |
| Myanmar | -5.9 | 2.0 | n/a | 2.8 | n/a | n/a | 3.2 | n/a |
| Philippines | 5.7 | 7.6 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.2 |
| Singapore | 8.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Thailand | 1.5 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.3 |
| Vietnam | 2.6 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| The Pacific | -1.4 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.9 |
| Developing Asia | 7.2 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| INFLATION | ||||||||
| JULY | SEPT | DEC | JULY | SEPT | DEC | |||
| Caucasus and Central Asia | 9.0 | 12.9 | 10.6 | 10.6 | 10.9 | 7.8 | 8.0 | 8.4 |
| East Asia | 1.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| China | 0.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| South Asia | 5.8 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 6.7 |
| India | 5.5 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 4.2 |
| Southeast Asia | 2.0 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.5 |
| Indonesia | 1.6 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Malaysia | 2.5 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.7 |
| Myanmar | 3.6 | 18.4 | n/a | 14.0 | n/a | n/a | 8.2 | n/a |
| Philippines | 3.9 | 5.8 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| Singapore | 2.3 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Thailand | 1.2 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| Vietnam | 1.8 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| The Pacific | 3.1 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| Developing Asia | 2.6 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.6 |
Source : Reuters
